The ‘Relegation Zone’

Friday, July 24, 2026

I had originally planned for my next post to be titled something like “Sicko Mode: A Knicks Summer League Game Diary,” but, alas, I seem to not be quite as much of a sicko as I thought, as I wasn’t able to bring myself to watch even a second of Summer League. And, as an NBA Champion1, I think that’s my god given right.

However, to satisfy the deep, dark parts of my psyche that seem to wish I was still rooting for a team clutched in the talons of a perpetual tank, I thought I’d take a look at some of the NBA teams that are projected to finish at the bottom of the standings this coming year, with a special eye at how the new so-called ‘Relegation Zone’ (more on that moniker later) might affect their lot this season.

From our enemies at B*ettingpros, the bottom ten teams by projected 2026-27 win total are:

10) Charlotte – 40.5 ·

9) Washington – 39.5 ·

8) Utah – 36.5

T7) New Orleans – 26.5

T7) LA Clippers – 26.5

5) Chicago – 24.5 ·

4) Milwaukee – 22.5

3) Memphis – 21.5 ·

2) Sacramento – 20.5 ·

1) Brooklyn – 15.5

Each team marked with a · has control of their own draft pick in the 2027 NBA draft (as far as I can tell? Don’t shoot me if I’m wrong about anything). That will be the lens through which we examine each team’s motivations and desired outcomes for the next season, especially in the ways that it differs from what we would have expected under the lottery rules of yesteryear.

We’ll go over various elements of the new lottery system as we get into the nitty-gritty of each team, but, as a general rule, a team’s best chance at drawing that coveted Zacharie-Rissacher-shaped lottery ball is to miss the play-in but NOT have one of the three worst records in the league. Bottom-three means puts you in the ‘Relegation Zone’, which is usually Bad.

And, speaking of Bad, we of course must start with the Brooklyn Nets. With an over-under of 15.5, the second-class denizens of the Barclays Center are projected to be far and away the worst team in the league next year. HOWEVER, despite what I just said three sentences ago, I don’t think the Nets would actually mind being in the ‘Relegation Zone.’ Contrary to the dire-sounding name, the worst teams in the NBA aren’t booted down into the G League, or even out to Adam Silver’s new NBA Old World. They simply have a lesser chance of their name being drawn across each of the first 12 picks of the draft,2 and, since the Nets owe a first round pick swap to the Rockets in the final dividends of the James Harden trade (v2 of 5), they wouldn’t mind avoiding another Jayson Tatum situation and having that pick fall as high as possible.3 Furthermore, the new lottery rules also are meant to disincentivize being bad for multiple years in a row, and, therefore, teams will not be allowed to have the first overall pick in two straight years or a top-five pick in three straight years. Crucially, these restrictions “will apply only to each team’s own pick without regard to whether that pick has been retained by the team or traded to (and thus held by) another team.”4 So, if the Nets were to end up handing the number one pick to the Rockets in 2027, that would make their own pick ineligible to fall first in 2028, when they do have full control of it (and the likewise situation if the 2027 pick is in the top five).

All that being said, it’s time to Tank, Baby Tank for the Brooklyn Nets! I remain a Julius Randle fan, and am eternally grateful to him and Tom Thibadeau for adding winning as an option for my favorite franchise, but I think that a Big Two of Randle and Michael Porter Jr. just cannot be capable of producing much winning basketball. Thankfully for the Nets, winning is a choice, and, despite the NBA’s best efforts, Brooklyn has every incentive to Just Say No in the 2026-27 season.

Oh, the Sacramento Kings. Everyone needs a punching bag team, whether it’s the NBA or your fantasy league, and Vivek Ranadivé continues to be the Bob for every basketball pundit the world over. They finally managed a halfway decent tank last year, finishing with the fifth worst record in the league amongst stacked competition, but fell two slots in the draft to pick seventh in a four-man draft. Based purely on vibes and his stupid draft day shades, I don’t predict Darius Acuff to be a franchise-altering player, and he’s especially unlikely to light up the league this year as a rookie point guard. Thus, the following questions: can a 30-year-old Domas Sabonis recover cleanly from a torn meniscus? Will Zach Lavine bring his losing brand of basketball back to the All-Star Game for the first time since 2022? Or will they just say fuck it and trade them all, despite tanking no longer beinga viable path to a top pick? I’d wager that, whatever they chose to do, this team will end up being a bottom three seed and falling into the ‘Relegation Zone,’ continuing their haplessness, then end up firing Doug Christie and replacing him with some other early 2000s King. What’s Lawrence Funderburke up to these days?

And now, as promised, a brief intermission to discuss the name of this ‘Relegation Zone.’ Disgusting. Horrendous. Irresponsible. Have Adam Silver and his cronies really stooped so low as to cater to the EuroFetishists and their obsession with turning the NBA into La Liga? Or is it all just ploy to make those downtrodden Real Oviedo fans switch over and pledge their allegiance to the Orlando Magic after watching their team actually get relegated?5 Either way, abhorrent, childish behavior.

The Grizzlies! Memphis has finally fully excised itself of the “Fine in the West” roster that managed to win a singular playoff series in five seasons,6 with the trades of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. completing the dismantling that began with not choosing to re-sign Dillon Brooks “under any circumstances.”  And the bald-headed alien gods have smiled favorably on the team, gifting them a beacon of hope in the form of Cameron Boozer. Boozer, Cedric Coward, and Zach Edey have the makings of a legitimate young core, and, alongside nobody’s favorite player Jerami Grant,7 this team will clearly benefit from the new lottery rules and the re-incentivization of winning. I expect high League Pass Rankings for the Grizzlies this year.

The same, unfortunately, cannot be said for the Milwaukee Bucks. Another team without its own pick, the Bucks should, and I think will, do their best effort to end up in the ‘Relegation Zone.’ Milwaukee’s native son Tyler Herro should be an adept tank commander, as long as newly-based Kyle Kuzma doesn’t fill his head with nonsense by talking about the Crusades or some shit like that. I think it would be a positive for the league overall if Myles Turner were able to rehab his trade value and be an interesting piece at the deadline; his contract really isn’t that onerous, at about $27M this year and next and then a player option for 2028-29, and a playoff team lacking size could definitely come knocking at Milwaukee’s door with an offer. Overall, bad basketball.

Rounding out our top five is the Chicago Bulls, whom I wrote positively about in my last post. In doing some research for this, I was really surprised to find that the Bulls have a completely clean sheet of first round picks, with all of their own picks and none from any other teams. Like the Grizzlies, this is another team that should greatly benefit from the new system – not necessarily in that they will definitely get another top pick to pair with Caleb Wilson, but in the sense that this is a mediocre team that will just be incentivized to win as many games as possible. They probably won’t make the playoffs in a kinda stacked Eastern Conference, but that’s fine! Get everyone their reps, let them get older and wiser and stronger and come back next year with an eye for the 6 seed.

Aaaaaand that’s as many teams as I care to really write about! The Clippers, Pelicans, and Jazz all don’t have control of their own picks but are probably too talented to drop into ‘Relegation’ without extreme shenanigans (and the Pelicans aren’t nearly competent enough to pull off any shenanigans). Washington and Charlotte should both be pushing for the play-in but wouldn’t be devasted if they didn’t make it and had a better chance at a top pick.

I hope my main point was clear enough here – in general, I think the new lottery rules do a good job of incentivizing winning for mediocre teams, but the NBA may have missed the mark with how they implemented limiting teams from having high picks in successive drafts. I’m also not sure about being so punitive to the worst teams in the league; it feels like a reaction to teams’ bad behavior under the previous ruleset, as opposed to a system that honors the American tradition of worst-to-best drafts (aka, welfare) and furthers Adam Silver’s wet dream of every team having a .500 record. The ‘Relegation Zone’ could easily put bad teams in a Sisyphean purgatory, with fans unable to rely on hope and luck and prayers to the lottery gods for a glimmer of hope in the darkest of Emmanual Mudiay-filled times.

1Personally

2The top 16 picks are all drawn by lottery (unlike the previous system, which really just randomized the top 4 and slotted everyone else in by record), but teams in the ‘Relegation Zone’ cannot pick lower than 12.

3I know what you’re thinking, and yes, technically the Rockets could also be really bad and then that swap could still net the Nets a good pick. But my guy KD could never let that happen, right?????

4Mouthful courtesy of NBA.com.

5I’d be ashamed if I didn’t have to look this up.

6That lone victory came in 2022, where they beat the Timberwolves team of Pat-Bev-jumping-on-the-scorer’s-table-after-winning-a-play-in-game fame.

7Do you think anyone has a Jerami Grant jersey?

Thoughts From NBA Free Agency 2026, Day 1

On Walker Kessler and the Lakers writ-large:

Boy-O, that’s a big package. With this deal, the Lakers seem to have locked themselves into a core of Luka, Reaves, and Kessler for the next few years. Aside from their striking resemblance to NYSNC, this seems like a group that could conceivably be dragged to the finals by the Slovenian Ethan Frome1 but more likely won’t be able to break through the Thunder-Spurs-Nuggets-TWolves quadropoly in the West. Allowing the Jazz to control your 4 of your 6 draft picks from 2028-2033 is bold, and could ultimately prove detrimental to the next-next version of the Luka Doničić Lakers.

I think Sandro Mamukelashvili is a very good player and his name is really fun to say. He’ll be a standout backup 4 or 5 and I wish the Knicks could’ve signed him. 4/52 is a solid contract.

Grimes was a good-but-frustrating young Knick, and I’ve frankly been a bit of a hater ever since he left in a huff about his Thibsian utilization. I don’t think his 21 games with Philadelphia in 2024-25 (22/5/5, 27.5% usage rate[!!!]) is reasonable to expect again when you consider that that team was in a race to the bottom (#Top6ers), and this past season’s 13/4/3 with a 19% usage rate is a much more apt comp, especially with Luka’s propensity to hammer the ball into the hardwood like the world’s worst carpenter. For whatever it’s worth, in their 21 games together in Dallas before Nico Harrison saved basketball in Los Angeles, Grimes averaged 7/3/1 in 19 minutes per game.

Collin Sexton feels like a great, cheap flier – only 68 games over the past 2 seasons, but, if he can stay healthy, he should be old enough and wise enough now to accept his role as a microwave scorer off the bench.

Back to Kessler: this is a great piece of business from the Jazz. Avoiding paying your never-been-an-All-Star (and never even having particularly sniffed All-Star consideration, as far as I can remember) $35 million/year while picking up valuable draft capital is exactly the correct way to build a future contender. Ace Bailey, Keyonte George, and Darryn Peterson has the potential to be a rock-solid young core, while Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen will still be only 28 and 29 respectively to start to year.

On Mitchell Robinson:

I’ve already made my overall thoughts on Mitch pretty clear, but I won’t deny it’ll sting to see him in a Boston uniform next season (opening night???). The contract is right on the line of good possible value, but I remain adamant that going into the second apron without a clear way of getting out after one year is bad business – not just for James Dolan’s checking account, but for team building and flexibility moving forwards. Jalen Brunson has a gigantic, well deserved payday coming in a couple years, and, if the Knicks want to remain competitive after he inks his new deal, they have to start being smart and proactive right now.

From Tommy Beer on Twitter:

  • This past season, Robinson appeared in 60 games for the first time since 2021-22. Over the prior two years, he’d played in only 48 out of a possible 164 [regular season] contests.
  • Among the ten Knicks who logged at least 250 minutes in the playoffs, Robinson was the only player to record a plus/minus below 40. His individual +/- of +31 was the worst among all of NY’s rotation regulars. ​
  • Mitch converted just 17 of his 58 FT attempts in the playoffs, a putrid 29%.

Mitch will forever be a beloved Knick, but remaining competitive unfortunately requires a different look at backup center. As of the time I’m writing this, we’re still waiting to see who that might be.

On Norm Powell:

Bobby Marks has the Bulls starting lineup as Giddey-Powell-Caleb Wilson-Buzelis-Claxton. It’s hard to explain why this 31 to 46 win team is different from all other 31 to 46 win Bulls teams of the past decade, but I think the affect is something completely new. It might purely be the upside of Caleb Wilson, but this roster feels like a team on the rise, smartly putting together guys who can either, 1) develop into being a part of the next Chicago Bulls team to sniff the second round of the playoffs, or, 2) act as reasonable vets on reasonable contracts. Norm Powell is certainly in the latter category, and $45 million over 2 years fits that timeline perfectly. In the new lottery-reformed NBA where mediocrity can be a path to success, the Bulls may have finally assembled a mediocre team with a bright future.

On the Pistons:

I think letting Jalen Duren walk would be a huge mistake from the gang at Little Ceasar’s Arena. Yes, he had a bad playoffs. Yes, the full 30% Rose Rule max extension would be a tough pill to swallow. But he’s 22, is coming off of an effective and efficient season in which he was named to the All-NBA 3rd Team, and is a good complementary fit with your franchise player in Cade Cunningham. Overreacting to two bad playoff series would be a tough way to cap off what has been an otherwise patient rebuild.

John Collins is, I would say, a good, but maybe a tad expensive get. He hit the coveted 40% from deep mark last season on three attempts a game, but I’d like to see some higher rebounding numbers for a team that traded away Beef Stew and seems like it might lose Jalen Duren (with the acknowledgement that I’m really just looking at simple rebounding stats, and Collins may be a better rebounder than those imply). And this signing doesn’t help with the Pistons’ need for a creation beyond Cade Cunningham.

1I’m pretty sure this makes zero sense, but something something sleds? But I don’t think I ever opened this book when it was assigned in 12th grade English, sorry Dr. Kenney.

Get That Bag Mitch, But Beware, Buyer, Beware

Oh BlockNessMonster my BlockNessMonster, go forth and get thy bag.

Mitchell Robinson has been a favorite Knick of mine since he was selected by the team with the 36th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft (3 picks after a certain guard from Villanova went to the Dallas Mavericks, and 27 picks after a certain wing/where-we-droppin’ guy from Kentucky was also selected by the Knicks).1 From his early days of blocking three pointers and haphazardly fouling everyone on the court to his 2023 playoff drubbing of the Cleveland Cavaliers through pure offensive rebounding grit, Mitch was a 7-foot-tall beacon of positivity and basketball upside within the general malaise that mired Knicks basketball in the post-Porzingis, pre-Brunson era.

Those were the days of scouring box scores and Reddit threads to see how many points Frank Ntilikina scored (often, none) and how many shots Mitch swatted (2.4 a game, second in the NBA that year to only Myles Turner). Those were the days of Zion-KD-Kyrie hype videos, of huffing hopium about David Fizdale’s superstar-friendly coaching style (which turned out to just be apathy). But, most importantly, those were the days of losing, losing, and losing some more.

Eight years of steady, but not linearly upward, progress later, the New York Knickerbockers are Champions of the World and Mitchell Robinson is the only remaining vestige of that Knicks era into which his career was birthed. This year, Mitch played 13.9 minutes per game in the playoffs, good for ninth most on the team, scoring 4.8 points, hauling in 5.5 rebounds (2.6 offensive), and blocking 0.6 shots.2 He shot a dreadful, miserable, horrible, no good, very bad 29% from the free throw line, effectively rendering him unplayable for large swathes of games, and he mysteriously suffered a ‘boxer’s fracture’ on his right hand in the days between the Conference Finals and NBA Finals.

Ok, so not the world’s best playoffs for Mitch – that’s fine, it happens to everyone. He still had some big time moments in big time games, including grabbing the possibly-series clinching offensive rebound after a Josh Hart free throw miss at the end of Game 5 against the Spurs (and, miraculously, managing to not get immediately fouled by Victor Wembanyama), and his woes at the charity stripe, while frustrating, didn’t ultimately cost the Knicks a chance at the championship. What about his regular season? Was he able to be effective when teams weren’t spending weeks scheming up Hack-A-Mitch stratagems?

In 2025-26, Mitchell Robinson appeared in 60 regular season games (his most since playing 72 in 2021-22). He shot a remarkable 72% from the floor – not quite his NBA single-season record 74% from 2019-20 – and his 4.2 offensive rebounds per game were second in the league to Portland’s Donovan Clingan, who played 27 minutes a game to Mitch’s under 20. And he was clearly effective when on the floor: his Box Plus/Minus and WS/48 (two stats that do not take into account minutes played) were both second on the team, behind only Jeremy Sochan and his paltry 111 total minutes. His work on the glass was still prodigious, gobbling up an absurd 24% of all available offensive rebounds while on the floor, and he managed to shoot free throws at a 40% clip – not good by any stretch, but reasonable enough to keep opponents honest.

Of course, everything comes back to the old adage that sometimes availability is the best ability. At his current salary of a hair under $13 million, Mitchell Robinson was able to contribute more value to the Knicks than an equivalent player taking up 8.38% of the salary cap. He played the seventh most minutes on the team in the regular season and he made the sixth most money on the team. Acceptable? Sure. However, if, on his next contract, Mitch is looking for a significant raise, the value proposition quickly slides further and further away from the positive.

The sad truth is that Mitchell Robinson is not an 82 game player because he’ll never approach playing 82 games, and he isn’t a 16 game player because he couldn’t make a damn free throw if the life of one of his trucks depending on it. As a backup center on a deep, flexible, and championship-caliber team, this was acceptable, but, if the Lakers or the Kings (led by Scott Perry, the GM of the Knicks when they drafted Robinson in 2018)3 want to put him in their starting lineup, I fear they are in for a nasty surprise. And for the Knicks, this roster as currently constructed has, by my reckoning, about two years left in their championship window before difficult decisions will have to be made regarding the Starting Five That Finally Could. Leon Rose and Mike Brown have shown themselves to be adept at creating flexible, effective lineups that utilize bench players on value-oriented contracts, and, to me, saddling them with a $25 million dollar backup center who can’t play back-to-backs and can’t hit a fucking free throw isn’t a recipe for continuing that success.

Mitch will forever be a Knicks legend, the bridge from a woebegone era to a banner-raising era. May his trucks forever haunt the streets of Midtown, but, sadly, I don’t think his new contract has any place on James Dolan’s ledger. Get that bag Mitch, and make sure it matches your ride as you roll on out of New York.

1This draft is full of interesting names almost a decade later (and no, Kevin Knox is not one of them). All-Stars=Luka (3), SGA (11), Jaren Jackson Jr. (4), Brunson (33). Sub-All-Star-But-Still-Pretty-Good=Michael Porter Jr. (14), Kevin Huerter (19), Anfernee Simons (24), Jarred Vanderbilt (41), Bruce Brown (42), and the dynamic duo of Miles Bridges (derogatory, 12) and Mikal Bridges (celebratory, 10). OAKAAK=Brunson, Mikal, Knox (9), Donte DiVincenzo (17), Landry Shamet (26), Omari Spellman (30), Mitch (36), Svi Mykhailiuk (47), Keita Bates-Diop (48), Shake Milton (54).

2The extreme decrease in shot blocking from his rookie year to now is, in my view, probably a good thing. Mitch is no longer flying out to the three point line for blocks, opting instead to focus his energy on rebounding, and, maybe more importantly, not averaging 3.3 fouls a game in just over 20 minutes of action a night, as he did in his rookie season.

3I can’t say that I remembered this one, but apparently the Knicks hired Scott Perry 3 months after he agreed to a new position in Sacramento, and, as recompense for this poaching, handed the Kings a future second round pick. Brock Aller is rolling over on the carpet of his MSG office.